Many
pundits fear American democracy will be in existential danger if
Republicans capture one or both houses of Congress in this November's
elections. I disagree.
If
we make one assumption, these fears make sense. Democracy is only
possible if those losing elections are willing to concede, as Marine
Le Pen commendably just did in France. Otherwise you just have what
is often derogatorily called a "banana republic."
The
apparent problem is that so many Republican candidates facing
primaries say they agree that the 2020 presidential election was
"stolen."
The
assumption upon which the fears rest, however, is that these
Republican politicians are all expressing their true opinions about
2020. If they really believe the election was stolen, it would be
extremely troubling.
This
assumption, however, is probably a false one.
Americans---including Republicans---- who venture into politics are
nearly always above average in intelligence and education, skilled
at critical thinking, and able to evaluate the credibility of things
other people claim.
As
I have often
said,
our leaders are smarter than they act!
Most
Republican candidates probably understand full well that, although
Republicans did well in winning other offices, their candidate lost
the presidential election, his persistent claims to the contrary
notwithstanding.
(If
Democrats were able to steal the presidency, why didn't they also
steal enough congressional elections to secure majorities in House
and Senate too?)
The
problem for these candidates is that the former president was a
marketing genius who managed to convince a large number of Republican
voters
that the election was stolen. Like any excellent marketer, he
started claiming this well before the election, when his private
pollsters predicted he would lose, and repeatedly articulated that
claim after the election.
Republican
primary voters who have fallen for the lie that 2020 was stolen will
likely vote as a bloc against candidates who disagree with them.
The
ideal strategy for Republican candidates who understand that 2020 was
not stolen is therefore to pretend they agree with it. Seeking to
neutralize the political consequences of the big
lie that 2020 was stolen, these candidates are telling smaller
lies.
These
smaller lies are probably in the general interest, since otherwise
candidates who actually believe the big lie might win the primary
elections. And thanks to partisan gerrymandering, the extremist
candidates could win the general election, even though this is less
likely.
Cowardice,
never admirable, is far from unusual among politicians, who
generally cannot
afford to
be "profiles in courage."
But
this is why I am not contemplating the possibility of a Republican
takeover of Congress this November with great dread. Unhappiness,
yes, since I disagree with many of their policy preferences. But
dread that this will mean the end of American democracy, no.
The
basic problem American democracy faces, therefore, is not with its
politicians. It is with a public where a substantial minority has
been sold a bill of goods by a talented demagogue.
Republican
politicians pretending to have swallowed that bill of goods in order
to win primary elections are behaving responsibly, in this regard at
least. They are good Americans who realize that to save the
democracy bequeathed to us by our ancestors, they will have to get
their hands dirty.
History
will absolve them, just as it has absolved Abraham Lincoln for the
unscrupulous things he did to keep the country together and rid it of
slavery.
History
will absolve them, just as it has absolved Franklin D. Roosevelt for
the terrible compromises he had to make with southern members of
Congress in order to pull us out of the Depression and win World War
II.
As
sociologist Max Weber explained,
a political career is not for those with weak stomachs.
As
Weber put it, politics is indeed a "slow boring of hard boards."
